Apres Paris.

By Tim Marshall

After Paris the Front Nationale will gain support. This happened in January after the Charlie Hebdo attacks. Marine Le Pen kept quiet then, and still saw support grow. After Paris President Hollande’s popularity will go even lower. He had a slight gain in January, but the public will feel his measures have failed. The attacks come 5 days after France announced the aircraft carrier Charles De Gaulle would return to the Gulf to assist in air strikes against IS – France is likely to deepen its military commitment.

After Paris the British government will assess the public and political mood in the UK and judge if they should table a vote on the RAF bombing in Syria as well as Iraq. PM Cameron wants to do this, and would have already held a vote but the maths was against him. If that changes – there will be a vote on standing ‘shoulder to shoulder with our NATO ally France’.

After Paris the battle to keep the UK in the European Union will become more difficult, especially if any of the attackers are found to have arrived in France recently, or have been given asylum. News late on Saturday suggests that the holder of Syrian passport found at scene of one of the attacks passed through the Greek island of Leros on Oct 3 according to a Greek official. The emotion of ‘secure borders’ will vie with the argument about economic logic ahead of the referendum.

After Paris the spirit of Schengen may shrivel and die. It had already taken some hammer blows due to the refugee/migrant crisis. It will become the norm to suspend the agreement.

After Paris Poland has already announced it cannot accept EU quotas for asylum seekers. The PM designate, Beata Szydlo, is linking the attacks to the refugee/migrant crisis. Elsewhere on the international stage Putin will use the atrocity to leverage his argument that ‘we’ are all fighting terror. This will begin at the G20 in Turkey.

After Paris race relations in France, already poor, may worsen. About 8% of the French population are Muslims. This morning Muslims all over Europe woke up and thought ‘Not again’. They know the actions of a few, will be blamed by some, on the many. That is what the terrorists want – division and hatred.

and sadly, there will now be a debate with one faction saying ‘Yes, but, brought on itself, foreign policy, oppression’ etc ad nauseum which knowingly or, (if we are generous) idiot unknowingly, helps the cause of the mass murderers.

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15 Comments on "Apres Paris."

  1. nehad ismail - United Kingdom | 14th November 2015 at 3:20 pm | Reply

    Definitely the Front Nationale will gain support. However the main beneficiaries of the ISIS Paris massacres are Assad, Putin and Iran. ISIS makes them look reasonable by comparison. Between them they manage to kill 300 or 400 Syrians every week.The ignorant thugs who carried out the heinous crimes had been brain-washed to believe that they will end up in Paradise. They don’t know that ISIS top bosses are tools in the hands of the Military Intelligence of Assad and Iran.
    The media must ask who controls ISIS? Who directs its operations? Who selects its targets? Whose Agenda it is serving?

    • IS are Sunnis fighting Shia Iran and its minions, not tools in their hands. More likely, tools in the hands of Erdogan. Iran will benefit by looking moderate, Russia will benefit by looking strong(er than the US) but they are not the backers of IS.

  2. With the uncontrolled and catastrophic influx of ‘immigrants (legal or otherwise)pouring into Europe, and with police and other protective services impotent to defend and protect EU citizens, it might be useful to consider relaxation of restrictions on the private ownership of guns by EU citizens. In essence, we are disarmed.

    I wonder what would have happened if any of those under attack in Paris had been armed would they have had a fighting chance.

  3. I am always impressed with just how much force the French can deploy on their streets at short notice. The UK’s armed police resources are nowhere near as many and our Home Secretary is seeking to reduce them even further.

    The French and British intelligence services are struggling to monitor too many targets. Terrorists are slipping through the net. In the second world war nations used internment to reduce any 5th column to manageable proportions. France could intern the top 2000 suspects and create much needed capacity for their surveillance teams. If they won’t do this when over 200 people die in one night how many more people will have to die before they finally do.

  4. Whilst I am sure that most, if not all readers of this blog felt a sense of horror at the events which unfolded in Paris, I am sure I am not alone in the feeling that, perhaps, the Fench are paying the price for over half a century of arrogance eminating fro the Elysee palace. A euro-centric worldview (with of course, the Freench leading the way) that preaches to others what they themselves are unwilling to practice.

    Tim writes about the suspension, if not demise, of the “spirit of Schengen”. He would be better off describing it as the “spectre of Schengen”.

    Were any politician to express a view condemning unfettered immigration into the Eurozone, I am sure the liberal pseudo-intellectuals would scream “Xenophobia!” or “Islamophobic fascism”, with those in the left-leaning mass-media readily offering them a bully-pulpit with little or no balance given to the opposing Point-of-View.

    Indeed. while Tim is entitled to his political viewpoint, he exposes his bias, when in the last paragraph he describes those holding a right-of-centre view as idiots helping the cause of mass-murderers and begins his blog bemoaning the possible rise of the French Front Nationale.

    Of course, 99.9% of Moslems are peace-loving people who want to get on with their lives. But just as 99.9% of air-travellers do not want to hijack an aircraft, but pay the price for those that do, thus French Moslem citizens will have to pay the price for the minority in their midst who want to blow up Kosher supermarkets or Football stadia` until they expel the extremists from the midst (and there is little of no eidence of this), they will just have to “suck up” the discomfort.

    It’s not being racist or Islamophibic to want to limit the influx of refugees or others from the Middle-East, or to suspend the Schengen Agreement, it’s just being realistic. Nor are those who hold this worldview unknowing idiots helping mass-murderers. If there is a better solution, I want to hear it, not be labelled with nametags of have epithets thrown my way just because others, holding a different political point-of-view don’t agree with me.

  5. I agree French Armed Response was probably much better than we can manage under present circumstances.

    There is a view our police should be armed (I agree). They are in Sweden and it has not caused any problems there.

    No we should not have personal weapons, but ladies pepper spray in the handbag would be a good idea….especially while the attackers are reloading, if not before.

    They say never get into a car by force…perhaps you should not lie down either, then the control of the crowd is much harder. I would prefer to die trying to fight back.

    • The Israelis have learn’t that overpowering the attacker is often the best option at the start of an attack. Many videos from there show people running towards an attack and mobbing the attacker. Granted many of them are armed but many just pick up the nearest weapon. The sad fact is that it takes thousands of attacks before a population learns to resist by joining together and attacking. I am not just trying to be a keyboard warrior. I have never had to face an assault rifle and grenades but I often think about what I would do in such a situation. If your very close to the killer then attacking him maybe your only chance. Look how those people on the French train got out alive when they took down their would be killer.

      • Part of this is military training that most Israelis have gone through to always seek contact and engage an attacker. Never try this if you are unarmed. Learn street fighting techniques to throw off your attacker and run.

        And never ever lynch an attacker after he has been neutralised.

        Here in Israel there is quite tight control of gun ownership, but in any crowd there is likely to be someone who is armed and to tell the truth looking at the videos coming out of attacks here, the attackers just seem to be having very bad, and for them, fatal judgment and seem to go disproportionately for armed citizens.

        • @ Rafi Stern,

          As of 2009 there were 310 million registered firearms held by private citizens in the United States. This, of course, does not take into account the number of unregistered weapons.

          A terrorist, targeting a shopping mall or street or restaurant or hotel or sporting event, etc. in the United States might get some surprising ‘push-back’ from private US citizens such as would never be likely among the unarmed Europeans.

          • But then again, over 400,000 Americans have been killed by gunfire in America since 9/11.

          • Ah Tim! But the WHO reports in the year 2012 alone (!) there were 36,166 deaths in the United States owing to traffic accidents. No one has suggested yet that possession of a motor vehicle by a citizen ought be severely forbidden or curtailed.

            Notwithstanding the 36,166 deaths owing to traffic accidents, there are 11,000 homicides per annum from firearms in the United States.

          • Thats not comparing like with like. Most of car fatalities will be due to accidents.

          • We can agree to disagree, Tim, and I appreciate your having taken time to respond. The statistics will (and do show) however that 30% of deaths due to firearms in the United States are ruled homicides. Your 400,000 figure will likely reflect all deaths involving firearms over a 14 year period, the nuance being that every firearm death is not a homicide.

        • Here in Israel, the word “neutralise” in its Hebrew form has almost become a synonym for “kill”- as in “neutralise with a bullet through the head….” and as Rafi quite rightly points out, Arab attackers have been generally unlucky in picking on targets who can fight back. That is the reason for the disproportionate numbers of “martyrs” who gain a rapid one-way ticket to the 72 virgins in paradise but generally fail to do much damage. Perhaps European governments should take a look at arming citizens who are properly trained in the use of firearms as an adjunct to regular Police forces…

          • Stacey, my assumption is that he was not dead, hence my comment not to take part in a lynch. It is true that the euphemistic word “nitrul” (=”neutralisation”) has become a bit overused in Israeli media recently. However the use of lethal force against a lethal attack is certainly justified and is a long way from “neutralise with a bullet through the head” that you say. No civilised person can ever condone summary execution and this is not what is happening in Israel. If you take time to look at the CCTV videos that are coming out of foiled attacks, you will see that in all cases what is happening is that an attacker is coming at a person with a knife and the victim or a by-stander is responding with fire to repel the attack. In a couple of cases where attackers were lynched, arrests have been made and people are being held to account.

            Which brings me to my next point, that arming civilians is a very dangerous road to go down. There have been a couple of deaths in Israel of mistaken identity where innocent people have been shot by civilians – one was lynched by civilians. In an atmosphere of fear with daily attacks these mistakes occur and will only grow in gravity, the more abundant and the heavier the firepower in the hands of civilians. Guns need to be kept in the hands of people trained to use them in combat and anti-terrorism. The idea of putting more weapons in the hands of civilians without the necessary military background across Europe does not seem to me a recipe for protection of the population, but rather for a bloody free for all.

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