By Nervana Mahmoud. Adapted from an article first published in ahramonline
The New Suez Canal has been inaugurated amidst controversial scenes ranging from the expression of public joy, to mocking, scepticism, and endless articles questioning its economic worth.
The right time to voice concerns should have been August 2014. Exactly a year ago, Egyptian authorities announced that Egyptian pound-denominated Suez Canal certificates would be available locally and abroad.
If the project’s sceptics were not convinced about the feasibility of the government-projected gains from the certificates at the end of their five-year maturity period, why did they not step up their campaign to stop the fundraising?
Some may assume the lack of opposition was a result of the fear of oppression by the Egyptian authorities. However, opponents had an array of social media possibilities to explore if they were serious about trying to stop the project.
The only vocal opponents of the project were the Muslim Brotherhood, but it was part of their hyped approach to post-Morsi’s Egypt and not a rational stand that would attract Egypt’s apolitical public. Before the inauguration of the New Canal few people bothered to review the project’s advantages/disadvantages, a trend that was reversed only after completion of the project, when a huge number of opinion pieces saturated the media, questioning the project’s alleged benefits.
There are a few possible reasons that could explain the baffling initial apathy toward the project and the late fervour. Either those opposed to the project were not truly serious about stopping it, or they assumed the project would not be completed; hence, in their view, it was pointless to waste energy opposing it.
That is likely the real reason; it is a kind of popcorn approach to politics, a quiet wait-and-see initial phase, followed by an over-excited rant against the project, once finalized. This approach is fundamentally flawed as it indicates how the anti-Al-Sisi elite are politically lazy and incapable of forward thinking.
Regardless, the whole matter reflects why the Egyptian public does not take opponents of Al-Sisi’s leadership seriously. It is unfortunate that opponents of the project have mistimed their moves, and opted for a late show of discontent.
It is no good for an average Egyptian who invested his or her savings in the Suez Canal project to hear scepticism about the project, a year down the line. The idea of the public turning against Al-Sisi after the inauguration of the canal is ludicrous. Would the public ignore the visual impact of the new two-way canal, and consider instead belated articles drumming doom and gloom? Unlikely.
The campaign against the Suez Canal may have raised good questions about the project, and whether it will double revenues in five years as projected. However, its mistiming is its biggest failure. A late alarm button is a failed alarm system. A change in Egypt’s political and economic discourse needs a proactive opposition, not a few late, sarcastic voices on social media.
If chess is a good metaphor to describe political scenes, Egypt’s dynamics can be described as two simultaneous games. One is a serious chess game by Al-Sisi, initiating various gambits to achieve some incremental gain.
The other, however, is a parody chess game played by his opponents; full of noise, rants, and dubious gambits that aim only to attract attention, but fail to change anything. The Egyptian president got his canal, his legacy, and a crucial nod of approval from his Gulf allies, in addition to the potential economic gain.
The publicity accorded to the project, even if negative, is not necessarily bad news for him; he cemented the perception of the reliability of his leadership. His opponents, on the other hand, got nothing.
The problem in Egypt is not Al-Sisi and his potentially “dubious” grandiose projects, but in his opponents’ spectacular mediocrity that consistently fails to convince Egyptians that they are a better alternative.
Nervana Mahmoud is a Doctor, Commentator and Writer on Middle East Issues. You can follow her on twitter @Nervana_1