GUESTSM2Seven suspected ISIS terrorists were killed in a secuity operation in Jordan this week as they prepared to launch a series of atrocities according to the Jordanian authorities. One member of the security forces was killed and three wounded in clashes which lasted several hours in the city of Irbid which is 50 miles north of the capital Amman and about 13 miles from the Syrian border.  13 people were arrested according to the state run Petra news agency citing the General Intelligence Directive, Jordan’s national intelligence agency.  Here Guest Writer Nehad Ismail argues that Jordan will prove to be stony ground for ISIS to try and sew discord.


 

HewarLast year, the U.S. Embassy warned about “a potential threat against high-end malls in Amman… Extremist groups have repeatedly expressed interest in attacking so-called soft targets, such as malls and restaurants, in Jordan,” the embassy said.

Despite the existence of ISIS sympathisers in Jordanian society, the overwhelming majority are fiercely opposed to them particularly since the burning alive of Lt. Moath al-Kasasbeh, a 27-year-old Jordanian fighter pilot captured by ISIS in December 2014.

As part of the anti-ISIS coalition Jordan has become a target for ISIS operations. But Daesh/ISIS has so far failed to carry out a single spectacular operation in the country as it has done, and is still doing, in Iraq and Syria. ISIS launched military attacks in Turkey, Lebanon, and Egypt and expanded its franchise into Libya.

The simple explanation for Daesh’s failure in Jordan is that it has no base of collaborators and there is no collusion and no deals between the Jordanian military and security apparatus and ISIS. This is not the case elsewhere.

Without Syrian and Iranian collusion ISIS couldn’t have lasted this long. It has lost in Kobane, and lost many villages in North Iraq and is now retreating. According to Zvi Bar’el the Israeli analyst writing in Haaretz 3rd June 2015 the “Assad regime forces abandoned the city of Palmyra and allowed ISIS to take it over unopposed”.Moreover Syrian activists in Raqqa, the de facto capital city of ISIS had been handed over to Daesh by the Assad forces for tactical political purposes.

Jordan responded to Kasasbeh’s killing by executing two prisoners — Sajida al-Rishawi, whose release ISIS had previously demanded as part of a prisoner exchange, and Ziad Karbouli, a former top aide to the late leader of al Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

Then the Jordanian government began cracking down on ISIS’s supporters and has been successful in foiling ISIS’s attempts to mount military operations due to strong intelligence and military readiness.

Jordanian intelligence also has infiltrated the Iraqi Sunni tribes aligned with ISIS. During the Iraq war, the US managed to turn those tribes against al Qaeda in Iraq and got them to fight with the Americans. That was a key pillar in the strategy that ultimately helped defeat the terrorist group, albeit temporarily.

But by far the most important factor to consider is that since ISIS’s existence was declared in the summer of 2013, ample evidence emerged to show that the military intelligences of Syria and Iran had penetrated and manipulated ISIS. Dozens of reports and articles had been written about “collusions and oil deals”. Recently the Russian bombing campaign in Syria has deliberately targeted moderate rebels supported by US and Turkey.

Opposition activists say this was Assad’s plan all along. Iraqi officials told the Wall Street Journal last year that the Syrian president has privately admitted the same. The regime buys oil from Islamic State territory, and the Islamic State helped the regime forces to capture the city of Aleppo last year

The latest evidence of collusion with ISIS  came from the award-winning Syrian journalist Rami Jarrah who has just returned from besieged Aleppo. 300.000 people are stuck between Russian bombs, a siege by Assad and the threat of ISIS. Rami Jarrah is one of the few who still report from the struck regions. He gave a detailed interview to Pieter Stockmans of Mondiaal Nieuws published on 25 Feb 2016.

Jarrah said the Assad regime has effectively frightened the people with the propaganda message that all rebels are like ISIS. “The groups Russia is bombing nowadays are indeed the groups that are being supported by Turkey and other countries”.

“Aleppo is besieged by two dictatorships: Assad and ISIS. As long as ISIS controls the countryside east of Aleppo, the government can’t carry out a siege on its own”.

It is clear from Jarrah’s words that ISIS and Assad are working together in Aleppo and other areas. The most revealing point about this collusion is in this paragraph: “It is possible that Assad, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah are preparing an offensive on Raqqa. But only as an ultimate propaganda-victory: Assad’s final battle between himself and the enemy he himself helped to grow only to defeat this enemy and prove that Assad is in fact the only alternative.”talking

However, in Jordan ISIS will fail.  The Jordanian Armed Forces are cohesive, competent, non-sectarian and loyal to King Abdullah and in Jordan ISIS will not find co-operation, co-ordination, collusion or oil to sell.

Nehad Ismail

 

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6 Comments on "Guest Writer: Why ISIS Will Fail In Jordan."

  1. mahatmacoatmabag | 5th March 2016 at 11:36 am | Reply

    Jordan is & always will be a delicate balancing act, A deposed Saudi origin dynastic monarchy imposed by British imperialist mischief making on the local Bedouin minority & what is basically a Palestinian majority. It has under British leadership avoided fighting the Nazis in WW2, invaded Israel in 1948, conquered & illegally occupied Judea, Samaria & East Jerusalem until their liberation by Israel in June 1967 during yet another failed Arab attempt to wipe Israel off the map. In the 1973 Yom Kippur war Jordan sent two armoured brigades and three artillery units to support the Syrians but avoided opening a front against Israel from its own territory whilst secretly meeting with Israels government & then we come to September 1970 when under Arafat, the PLO attempted & failed to conquer Jordan and turn it into the Palestinian state that it really is given its Palestinian Arab majority. Since the defeat of the PLO, Jordan & Israel have signed a Peace Treaty on October 26 1994 & Jordan enjoyed relative peace until the outbreak of the Syrian civil war which it has been drawn into & has become a refuge for 1.4 million Sunni Syrians fleeing Assads barbaric regime. All of this is putting increased pressure on the current King Abdullah II if he didn’t already have enough trouble from Muslim Brotherhood & Hamas supporters among the Palestinians. We can only hope that Abdullah will root out any attempt by ISIS to set up a terror base in Jordan, in that he can rely on behind the scenes help from Israel & hopefully from the UK & USA too although under Obama helping allies has a very low priority given his preference for ensuring that Iran is strengthened both financially & militarily thus allowing it to support the Assad regimes genocidal ambitions towards its own Sunni population.

  2. nehad ismail | 5th March 2016 at 1:16 pm | Reply

    Thank you mahatmacoatmabag for your perspective. I agree about the delicate balancing act. The geography has dictated this delicate and dangerous state of affairs (recalling Tim Marshall’s Prisoners of Geography).
    I have already discounted Obama from my calculations.
    Wishing you and your loved ones a good Shabbat

    • mahatmacoatmabag | 5th March 2016 at 3:48 pm | Reply

      Hi Nehad & thanks for your well written article. I have reached the conclusion that for the West and the Sunni Arabs led by Saudi Arabia & Turkey to concentrate on ousting Assad is a strategic blunder on their part. Instead they should concentrate on splitting Syria into a Shiite ruled Western half & a Sunni ruled eastern half, this IMO is the only way to end the genocide of innocent Sunni civilians as planned by Assad & Iran and assisted by Hezbollah and now Russia. The Russian entry into the war is a Paradigm Shift, ensuring that the Assad regime not just remains in power but can actually win the civil war & implement the genocide of any Sunnis that do not flee the country. I do not hold out any hope that Western leaders like Obama will help prevent further bloodshed in both Syria & Iraq due to their failure to understand the people & politics of the Mid-East in general & the unsated appetite of the insane Iranian regime for the conquest & destruction of its Sunni Arab neighbours. Western intervention in the Mid-East & North Africa has been a total failure leaving the region in violent & almost unresolvable long term conflict both civil & militarily . Hopefully Arab leaders will stop trying unsuccessfully to support the rebels defeat Assad & instead concentrating on creating a Sunni Syrian state in Eastern Syria which can go its own way, rebuild & reabsorb the millions of desperate Sunni Syrians who have fled Syria and leave Assad, Iran, Hezbollah & the Russians to rule the Western half of Syria. Thus I see that replacing Assad is a dangerous fixation on which too many are focused, Syria will never be whole again, so splitting Syria into two is the best solution similar to the split of the former Yugoslavia into its ethnic parts which ended the conflict & has allowed for rebuilding & peaceful relations between the former adversaries to come about. At present the ceasefire advantages Assads troops, Iranian and Hezbollah troops & the Russians giving them a break, a chance to rest, rearm & prepare for a further advance eastwards should no agreement on a more permanent ceasefire be reached which is a distinct possibility given Assad & Irans genocidal long term plans for Syria.
      Sadly US Sec. of State John Kerry is both an untrustworthy & an incompetent negotiator so I have little faith in the peace progress achieving anything & that is why I believe that it is essential that Saudi Arabia takes the lead in negotiating not the removal of Assad but the splitting of Syria to avoid the extermination of the remaining Sunnis in Syria.

  3. nehad ismail | 5th March 2016 at 7:33 pm | Reply

    Thanks Mahatmacoatmabag.
    I believe creating an Alawite state is a a joint project by Assad, Russia and Iran.
    The Kurds are also agitating for a state of their own.
    Most opposition groups are dead against dividing the country.
    We and see what happens next.

    • mahatmacoatmabag | 6th March 2016 at 10:22 am | Reply

      Hi Nehad, it is the opposition to divide the country that will give Assad & allies the victory he seeks of exterminating or driving out the Sunnis. Those that want everything & are unwilling to compromise in the war against Assad doom their civilian populations to decades of death, misery, poverty & exile ( for the lucky ones ). The Kurds are a separate case if given their own state or autonomy they will live in peace with their Sunni neighbours unlike the Shiites who are under the sway of Iran & seek to wipe out the Sunnis, a daunting task but one the mad mullahs are bent on come what may.

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