By Guest Writer Ollie Dewis

Why would I – an early 40-something young lady be SO hooked on the 2016 presidential election? US cable news is on 24/7 and I’m obsessively glued to social media updates.Opinion

The twists and turns in this year’s contest would have US drama series mogul Aaron Spelling spinning in his grave. Dynasty? Downtown Abbey? Pah! Just give me ‘Clinton V Trump’ (the complete boxset) any day of the week, no, any minute of the day.

In a nutshell what happens in America matters greatly to me and to the world at large. We are, after all, related nations, culturally intertwined, with a shared history that binds us.

Early on in the Republican nomination process, I knew Trump would win. He stood out from the pack. He articulated himself using plain ‘everyman’ language from day one, always factoring in the lowliest educated so that his plans wouldn’t be lost to the masses by confusing political-speak. If you ever listen to his rallies on live stream, you’ll see he has never stopped using this technique.

He didn’t have the $150 million advertising budget of Jeb Bush, he didn’t have the looks and relative youth (or smart ‘Cuban heels’) of Marco Rubio, nor the reasoned style of John Kasich (who I thought would have been a really good Republican candidate).

No – Trump stood out alright – the nomination was his. He rallied blue collar man and middle class America – an audience who have felt left behind and short changed for many years.

As for the Democratic nomination?  I fall into the category of those who cry “Bernie woz robbed!”

The superdelegate numbers were tied up for Hillary before the Democratic nomination campaign had even started. This created a top down intimidating effect which led delegates to feel ‘what the heck’ -we’re in for Hillary. What happened in the Washington caucuses was awful. Sanders won the majority of delegates but not a single superdelegate endorsed him. For me this was a disgrace for a party that calls itself The Democratic Party. That on top of the appalling tactics by the Clinton campaign as revealed by WikiLeaks and other sources, the Democratic Chair, Donna Brazile allegedly leaked CNN debate questions to the CNN camp (CNN have since cut ties with her).

Bernie didn’t have a prayer against this cynical maneuvering. An investigation recently revealed that ‘Remote’ DNC activists were also paid $1500 a pop to disrupt Trump rallies. This has allowed Trump in recent days to claim the moral high ground. Jeez! Bad move Team Clinton.

In my humble opinion, if Sanders had won the Democratic nomination, the campaign would have been infinitely different.

Without the ‘Crooked Hillary’ comedy we may have had more substantive policy discussion. Sanders was generally well liked and the demographic he touched has a huge crossover with Trump’s audience. In fact the emergence of the ‘Democrats for Trump’ and other #neverhillary movements is a consequence of the way the nomination process was conducted by the Clinton camp.

The media, corporates, and so called ‘establishment’ may rue the day they powerfully stumped against Trump, thus recreating something similar to the ‘David v Goliath’ Brexit production we endured this summer.

Trump was already leaping forward in the polls before Friday’s FBI’s statement about Clinton’s email case. Republicans were beginning to regroup and support Trump more openly. That and the Obamacare premium fiasco, have heaped poll numbers back in Trump’s favour.

Here’s a few reasons why Trump will win,and why failing campaign strategies engaged during Brexit and in the US election really need to be reviewed

Wealthy Celebrity and Hollywood endorsements don’t matter a fig to voters on zero hour contracts, struggling to pay the rent.

Skewing samples and not including previous non-voters has given a misleading impression in the US election and has not factored in many millions who will vote for the first time in years.

Media bias has not allowed fair and cordial airtime for all campaign teams during on air coverage. The US media has not shown great balance. Many of us knew that the pendulum would swing and a big Clinton story would force the media’s hand to redress the imbalance. On cue came the FBI story ….but the media should never have needed this kick to make it happen!

Attack ad budgets should be used sparingly. The US media industry will no doubt be furious with a Trump win. He has shown them and the whole world that you don’t really need a $1.5 billion dollar ad spend to win the race.  Trump’s brash sound bites and velvet glove truculence or should I say ‘Trumpulence’  has given him guaranteed airtime.

Never attack the voter only the candidate! Clinton’s ‘deplorable’ and ‘irredeemable’ gaffe toward Trump supporters was for me the critical downward turning point for her campaign. Remember when Brexit voters were told they were racist and xenophobic? It backfired. Respect the voter!

Even factoring in fake followers, Trump’s Social media following is leagues ahead of Clinton’s….not to mention all the periphery support groups …’Black Women for Trump’, ‘Students for Trump’, ‘Veterans for Trump’….basically it’s a scenario which feels like the ‘Trump’s People’s Army’ versus the evil ‘Clinton and the Establishment’. This rallies a ‘George slaying the dragon’ type enthusiasm. His campaign head, Kellyanne Conway has a large following …irrelevant you say?  I’d argue not.

I think Trump will win. I’ve been predicting it much to my friends’ annoyance for months. Many will weep and that’s to be understood but who knows it may be the best thing that’s happened to America in years. Even the best seasoned analyst doesn’t know how it will pan out despite the regular ‘Reckless Trump at the nuclear button’ quips.

If the American people choose Donald J Trump, then they were prepared to take that gamble and should be respected.

Ollie Dewis is a freelance publicist based in London.


7 Comments on "Is Trumpulence Winning?"

  1. You make some good points Ollie but I think it will be a demographic bridge too far for Trump in the end. He’s got very little support from black and hispanic voters and I’m not sure “what have you got to lose” is going to do the job for him. If Trump does win, watch the markets go into meltdown and prepare for very interesting times indeed.

    • Thanks Rob yes you’re right the markets will be in absolute turmoil in the aftermath if he wins. It’s anyone’s game at the moment. Early voting suggests the Hispanic vote is much higher this time around (no doubt triggered by Trump’s ‘build the wall’ comments, but apparently votes from the black community are seriously down. The usual early voter is probably holding back in case further revelations affect either candidate. It’s a nail-biting finish that’s for sure!

  2. I will be enjoying this car crash from the safety of my UK Armchair tomorrow night so glad I do not have a vote in what for me is an awful choice .Is this really the best two Candidates the United States can come up with ? Yep whoever the people decide on it should be respected. I just hope The Donald respects the will of the people if he does lose. Hope to hear your thoughts on Wednesday Ollie after the result, Enjoy if that is the right word!!

    • Hi Paul thanks. What a night. I’m thinking people perhaps thought the Latino vote would come good for Democrats in Florida and seal the deal but the disgruntled Haiti factor with the Clinton Foundation amongst other reasons stopped that (latinos want illegal immigration resolved too!). Hope the country can unite. He’s got a big job ahead of him made easier by republican majority in both houses of congress – first time since 1928. Rumoured that Rudy Giuliani will be next Attorney General. Not sure what this means for the Clinton Foundation woes and FBI…watch this space.

      • Yes well done Ollie you called it right and yes what a Night!! I stayed up most of the night and it was a roller coaster of a ride. I thought his acceptance speech was the most unifying speech I have heard from him and I hope he genuinely means what he says as there are a lot of bridges to be built not just walls!!! Yep a republican majority in both houses is quite something too so it all fell into place. Maybe come back and let us know what you think of his first 100 days!

  3. Well called Ollie, you can now have a couple more days of fun with your friends. It seems there was a huge discrepancy in how the Hispanic vote was polling compared to how they actually voted (low teens versus 29%). Just goes to show that when you pillory people for their opinions they will simply hide them. It does make you wonder then what the true level of support is for Marine Le Pen heading into next years French election. Markets quite muted so far with only the Nikkei showing the level of losses I would have expected. I actually think that the US public have chosen the better of the two candidates.

    • Hi Rob – yes I agree despite being unpalatable to many he’s a ‘get things done’ kind of guy. It was either that or choosing a president mired in legal action which would have taken up valuable time when the country has serious issues to address. I agree the intimidating Brexit style approach of suppressing voter opinion created a surprise on Election Day plus the media SHOULD have managed expectation through objectivity, instead they were all in for Hillary. Some serious lessons to learn there. Looking ahead to next year I do see similar events in France and Germany. So many pollsters were wrong last night. I disregarded them as samples were not reflecting the true voter base. However, a genius of a poll analyst to follow was Bill Mitchell @mitchellvii his forensic detail was calling it the day before yesterday.

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