GERMANY/USA – Leaders of major German industries say they fear President Trump will impose tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from the EU following differences between him and Chancellor Merkel at their White House meeting. In March Trump imposed 25% import tariffs on steel and 10% on aluminium in March, but exempted the EU until May 1st.

COMING UP

No particularly big set-piece events ala North/South Korea this week. The most important potential visit is probably that of U.S. Treasury Sec Steve Mnuchin to China as that should clarify the potential for a resolution to the threatened trade war between the 2 nations. On Tuesday we should also get guidance on if there will be a form of trade war between the USA and the EU related to steel and aluminium, but dragging in various U.S. consumer goods if it goes ahead.

DIARY

Mon –  France to extend border controls with Schengen member states for another 6 months.

Mon –  Myanmar hosts U.N. Sec council delegation to discuss the situation in Rakhine state.

Mon –  Palestinian National Council meets for the first time in 10 years, potentially to discuss succession for President Mahmoud Abbas.

Mon – U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo ends trip that included stops in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel.

Mon – Nigerian President Buhari meets U.S. President Trump in Washington.

Tues –  Russia to lift restrictions on the import of Turkish tomatoes. This dates back to shooting down of Russian jet.

Tues – U.S. exemptions on import tariffs on EU steel and aluminium end.

Tues – China imposes unilateral South China Sea fishing ban until mid-August.

Thurs –  Possible visit to China by U.S. Treasury Sec Steven Mnuchin.

Weds – U.S. Federal Reserve meets.

Fri –  Turkey’s political parties present candidates for presidential elections.

Sun –  Parliamentary elections – Lebanon.

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